Worth noting
Though it's been mentioned in the comments, this came from a reader regarding the silly arguments made by Ed Wilde against NABF ...
Economic impact analysis was initially done without any details about the proposed project - so they were complete assumptions. Once the details of the project were clarified the economic analysis was recalibrated taking into account the new information and were appropriately adjusted down.
Economic impact analysis was initially done without any details about the proposed project - so they were complete assumptions. Once the details of the project were clarified the economic analysis was recalibrated taking into account the new information and were appropriately adjusted down.
posted by Jmac at 6:26 PM
12 Comments:
They haven't been adjusted down on the state's website: http://www.georgia.org/nbaf
I don't think there's a conspiracy going on, and I also don't think Athens should be moving into the burgeoning field of wheatgrass production (or substitute your own hippie example), but this "this is the best you're going to get, Athens, so swallow it already" attitude does not really help matters. I understand that we are often a town that deliberates to a fault, but thoughtfulness and skepticism are mostly virtues.
That Vinson report is not unbelievable, but it does not differentiate between "jobs created in Athens" and "jobs taken by Athenians." The former still benefit the local economy, but less so, especially in terms of alleviating poverty.
There are plenty of others that can (and already have) done a better job of explaining this than I'm able to do but, I'll try.
Economic development and it's direct impact on our poverty problem is a complex and multi-tiered subject. Any business relocating in Athens is going to bring with it some of it's employees from the previous site. If NBAF comes to Athens, it is to be expected that some of the Plum Island folks will be offered jobs here. That is inherently fair and is also common practice. Some will choose to come; some will not. Open jobs for highly trained and vigorously recruited scientists will be filled by whomever is the best qualified candidate. Some may be "native" Athenians but it's more likely that most will come from other places.
Those folks relocating from other places will buy homes, cars, groceries, appliances, carpet, haircuts, etc. from local vendors. So, to jump to the conclusion, there will be more jobs for cosmetologists, dental assistants, construction workers, auto mechanics, clerks, and even janitors as a result.
What is the current condition of our local workforce? The answer depends upon which level jobs and which skill sets are in demand - the demand being created, in part, by the influx of new citizens who are employed by the new business. It also kinda depends upon who is answering the question, unfortunately.
The folks who make up our population living in poverty are, by and large, not well educated or highly skilled. Of course, there are exceptions. But, our high school dropout rate is outrageous! Our teen pregnancy rate is appalling! What jobs are going to be created for mothers without a high school education? I don't know but, it's not hard to predict that they won't be $80,000/year research scientists. But, those $100K+ households are still going to need somebody to mow their grass and wash their cars and paint and build and on-and-on...
So, using a simplistic definition of economic development to mean "new money coming into our local economy" helps provide more opportunities for folks who need employment as a means to lift them out of poverty.
NBAF, in this simplified view, means LOTS of new money! How much? We can project, speculate, estimate, guess all day long but, the important point is that it's significant. The number doesn't matter at all as long as we know that it's a whole bunch more than we have now.
I don't think anybody has ever said NBAF was a "this is the best we can do so take it" but it is an enormous opportunity and we can't pass it up lightly. I believe we need some rock-solid, damn indisputable evidence before we pass up an opportunity like this that is right in front of us!
I will say this: I doubt we'll get it. I wish that weren't true but, I don't think we've got the political clout in D.C. to land this big fish. Our Washington delegation is pretty weak and not that well connected and it's mostly Republican and we're about to have a mostly Democratic power base in D.C. so, we're a long-shot on this one. That's just my opinion but, I think there's some logic behind it.
It's not as though NBAF is ours for the taking. But, I'll take it if it's offered!
Al
Thank you, Al. I suppose what I'm getting at is that, if it's about the supplementary jobs created, why does the thing that creates those jobs have to be a big, vaguely creepy, disease-studying organism?
And the answer is generally, "well, that's what we've been offered."
Well, NBAF is what's in front of us now but we have been pursuing opportunities like that (life science, bio, ag, etc.) for a couple of years now. We haven't landed one yet but we keep trying.
If we don't get NBAF, UGA will expand onto that site at some point in the not-to-distant future and that would be OK and probably create a few more jobs and some eonomic development but, probably nothing like NBAF.
Private industry and business in the USA is not doing much in the way of expanding or even relocating during this economic downturn so, we aren't likely to get a lot of chances at anything big for several more years. As long as we keep rewarding US companies for shipping jobs overseas then, our manufacturing sector is going to continue to shrink. The US is particularly good at lots of stuff that employs people at the top end of the wage scale - research and development, banking and finance, insurance, and entertainment/media are some sectors in that group.
The only low-end job growth that we're going to have in the US for a while are going to be in the service sector. I don't know anybody who is happy about that but I don't know anybody with a solution, either.
It's not like we can just pick what kind of business we want to plop down in our favorite location and have that happen overnight. Every city in the country needs the same thing so, it's a buyer's market for businesses but even that doesn't help them if they are in no position to buy.
So, here we are...lettuce spray.
Al
FWIW: I grew up in Athens, been here about 44 years. For most of that time, I was among those most ardent citizens who would have preferred that Athens stop growing. I liked my town just the way it was and I liked that it was a comfortable, smallish town. In fact, if I'm thinking only of myself, I'd still prefer Athens to be about 60,000 people and would like it if the whole Atlanta Highway corridor was a rural road running through pasture lands (as it was in the late 60's and early 70's).
But, about 10 or 15 years ago, I realized that growth was not only inevitable but helpful for people who didn't have the same advantages that I enjoyed. I guess I just grew less selfish - I hate to call it maturity but...
So, I guess I'm saying that it bothers me that a small group of upper-middle class and independently wealthy folks are trying to torpedo our only current viable opportunity to do something that might help some folks that aren't as well-heeled.
Certainly, I would prefer an organic tofu plant that produced about $100 million/year in payroll but, I don't see that happening in my lifetime.
Al
So, I guess I'm saying that it bothers me that a small group of upper-middle class and independently wealthy folks are trying to torpedo our only current viable opportunity to do something that might help some folks that aren't as well-heeled.
I totally understand that. But, to me, it seems like the location of NBAF here may do things like raise property values (in a bad way), due to the ability of the folks who'll end up with those jobs to buy some of these $400K condos we keep building. Or many of them may locate in Oconee County, growing their tax base instead of ours and contributing to sprawl. It's also true that a lot of construction jobs, even when the building is located in Athens, are held by folks who commute. They might be spending their dollars on a lunch. But then again, they might not.
I'm not anti-growth, but it's not as though Athens has a problem with providing jobs period--we just have a problem with providing jobs that pay a living wage. I don't see how more people buying groceries in Athens is going to make the grocery stores pay their workers more. The unified government may benefit some from tax collection, which is great, but there will also be more services required of it.
Basically, I haven't seen a cost-benefit analysis that takes most of these potential complaints under consideration. I may be being too pessimistic, but, again, caution when faced with a sales pitch is not so bad.
" I don't see how more people buying groceries in Athens is going to make the grocery stores pay their workers more."
It won't, in and of itself. But it will do several good things. It will provide continuing employment for those who work in the grocery store, it will mean more jobs for grocery store workers, and it will ultimately translate into better opportunities for those who choose to take those grocery store jobs.
Some of them will move onto other things. They always do. But some will stay with the grocery store and advance. They won't always bag groceries for minimum wage. They'll learn new skills, accept new responsibilities, and make themselves more valuable to their employers, thus earning--emphasis on the word "earning"--more money for themselves.
That's how it works, or that's how it's supposed to work. For some reason, Athens has seems to have a disproportionate percentage of people who believe--or want me to believe--that all this economic advancement and enhancement can be accomplished by government fiat.
It can't.
Reggie
I'm not anti-growth, but it's not as though Athens has a problem with providing jobs period--we just have a problem with providing jobs that pay a living wage.
IMHO, it's simply a problem of oversupply.... We have thousands of students who are simply looking for a job to give them some extra spending money. They are willing to work at low wages which means that they often end up competing with non-students who lack the education and skills needed to compete for higher wage jobs. This glut of workers keeps service sector wages low.
The solution, I guess, is to attract jobs that lower-skilled workers are qualified for that are not attractive to students. NBAF fails on this front but it's also easier said than done as the competition for such employers is pretty intense.
Poultry plant!
Anyway, yes. I recognize that it's a larger economic problem. I'd just like a little more acknowledgment that NBAF may not do anything toward solving or alleviating that problem, which might be better solved by living wage legislation or focusing on matters other than wages in order to help those who need our help (health insurance, payroll taxes, affordable housing, etc.).
NBAF alone isn't an all-encompassing solution. I view it as an anchor (combined with UGA) for an eventual chain of bio-science related business and industry.
One big first step towards an ultimately dramatic economic impact.
Perhaps the reason most of the folks left arguing sound a little crazy is because people like me, who don't care quite as much, get tired of this discussion because it boils down to "show me your figures" and then "you hate economic development" or "but it will be an economic boon for Athens." Both sides (including mine, I admit) are basing their decisions on faith.
Anyway, I'm going to stop arguing. Or try to.
"we have been pursuing opportunities like that (life science, bio, ag, etc.)"
Really?
How, exactly?
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