(In) Four More Years!
Though I'm definitely not ready to concede the 2008 election yet since I think Barack Obama still possesses a very plausible chance to secure the Democratic nomination (he'll need to win a plurality of states on Super Tuesday and either finish a close second in California or win it), Ross Douthat's take on the chances of an Obama run in 2012 or 2016 is most interesting.
And while his take on it is pretty good, the readers' comments are also full of those 'what-if' scenarios us political junkies love to ponder. For instance ...
- Hillary Clinton will feel considerable pressure to make Obama the vice presidential running mate, largely because of the fact that he'll be bringing an absurd number of delegates to the convention and has the type of cross-party appeal that she lacks. Of course, seeing how they don't exactly like each other that much, it would be pretty fun to watch.
- Obama, if he loses, will become the de facto top Democrat. If Clinton wins the nomination, than Obama is the go-to Congressional spokesperson. If she loses, he's automatically the front-runner in 2012.
- In fact, an Obama loss in 2008 - coupled with a Clinton loss - might the best case scenario for him a la Ronald Reagan 1976-to-1980. Reagan ran as the outsider in 1976, almost knocked off the establishment candidate, and then used the next four years to build his base of supporters and launch his successful campaign.
- But what of an independent run by Obama this year? While I strongly doubt this would actually happen, it's one that you have to ponder. Obviously, he's got cross-party appeal and has energized voters who haven't been involved in the process before. The Clinton campaign has turned off large portions of the Democratic base, many of whom will support her in the general election but do so unhappily. Based on existing polls, it's more than plausible to think that he'd be able to receive more than 70 percent of the African-American vote and more than two-thirds of the younger vote. If he did run - again, not likely at all - he'd have to be considered as the most viable independent candidate ever. He could feasibly pick up anywhere from 30 to 45 percent of the vote if he runs the right campaign.
And while his take on it is pretty good, the readers' comments are also full of those 'what-if' scenarios us political junkies love to ponder. For instance ...
- Hillary Clinton will feel considerable pressure to make Obama the vice presidential running mate, largely because of the fact that he'll be bringing an absurd number of delegates to the convention and has the type of cross-party appeal that she lacks. Of course, seeing how they don't exactly like each other that much, it would be pretty fun to watch.
- Obama, if he loses, will become the de facto top Democrat. If Clinton wins the nomination, than Obama is the go-to Congressional spokesperson. If she loses, he's automatically the front-runner in 2012.
- In fact, an Obama loss in 2008 - coupled with a Clinton loss - might the best case scenario for him a la Ronald Reagan 1976-to-1980. Reagan ran as the outsider in 1976, almost knocked off the establishment candidate, and then used the next four years to build his base of supporters and launch his successful campaign.
- But what of an independent run by Obama this year? While I strongly doubt this would actually happen, it's one that you have to ponder. Obviously, he's got cross-party appeal and has energized voters who haven't been involved in the process before. The Clinton campaign has turned off large portions of the Democratic base, many of whom will support her in the general election but do so unhappily. Based on existing polls, it's more than plausible to think that he'd be able to receive more than 70 percent of the African-American vote and more than two-thirds of the younger vote. If he did run - again, not likely at all - he'd have to be considered as the most viable independent candidate ever. He could feasibly pick up anywhere from 30 to 45 percent of the vote if he runs the right campaign.
posted by Jmac at 4:39 PM
10 Comments:
He could feasibly pick up anywhere from 30 to 45 percent of the vote if he runs the right campaign.
and virtually guarantee a republican in the white house in 2009....
-wmo
Perhaps ...
It depends on where he runs well. But, in what would be a weird element, I could see a scenario where he won the popular vote and failed to win a state. Not plausible, again, but possible.
If he ran that strong, he'd probably throw the election to the House. Now THAT would be interesting.
Blake, you've been reading that archaic constitution again. Don't you know the supreme court decides these things?
-wmo
Obama would be crucified by the Democrats if he ran as an independant. He'd be forfeited his ability to EVER run as the Democrat candidate again.
Oh, and there is NO WAY Obama will be Clinton's running mate. I have a better chance to be Clinton's running mate, because at least I fulfill the two major qualities she's looking for in one: I'm male and white.
Y'all, for some reason the Obama campaign is having real trouble getting INTO and ONTO the "menu" at the JJ Dinner.
I think it will look bad for GA, if only Senators Clinton and Edwards are in attendance.
DPG Chairwoman Jane Kidd is a gracious and honorable lady, who offered invitations to the event to ALL the major candidates. I am certain that any rumored weirdness or outright opposition to his appearance isn't coming from her.
It is just not going to look or BE right if Obama's supporters are stuck outside, or at the 25$ rally (I haven't visited the DPG site in the past few days, since the possibility of a 25$ rally was raised).
I understand from his staff and other volunteers that Senator Obama is EAGER to be included, and has a fluid enough schedule, despite the frantic pace of the race these days to adjust it in order to do so.
I feel certain that fairness and inclusivity will prevail. Hopefully, sooner rather than later.
We political junkies know that perception isn't key in politics, it's everything.
It's going to stink if the news cycle after the JJ isn't about what an amazing job the party has done on the event, raising record money, record setting attendance, the opportunity for people at all income levels to attend, etc., but that for whatever behind the scenes reasons, Senator Obama was not included.
I sure hope this is all some bizarre, unfounded rumor type stuff, and that even as we speak, the details of this historic opportunity are being worked out.
Maddy
If Obama is "not included" it will be because he chose to un-include himself. He'd have looked at the landscape and decided his time and resources would be better spent elsewhere.
As much as I like to blame Democrats for things, I don't know how you could blame that on the party leadership.
Reggie
Maybe I'm crazy, but I have no problem expressing 'alternative' opinions here (and JMac loves me for it, don't let him tell you different). And I have trouble buying this 'Hillary and Obama can't stand each other" thing. Yes, this is like any popularity contest. The two cheerleaders are both running for class president to pad their college applications, and sure, there are some awkward feelings as it gets a bit intense during the election. People say things they shouldn't. Self-preservation overwhelms team spirit. But just for a while. When it's all over, everyone goes back out for milkshakes. Maybe I'm wrong, but that's okay.
Reggie,
I never said the "leadership of the party", in fact I went to great lengths to point out that we have the best leadership EVER at the very tip top of the party, in Jane.
But I've been talking to Obama's folks from GA. to Chicago, and
they certainly do want to be included, and have been making every effort to that end.
The very idea that
Senator Obama would disinclude himself from the opportunity to
be compared and contrasted to the other two major candidates just a few days before Super Tuesday is absurd. Why, that would give the impression that he's written off GA., and he has NOT! Not, not, not.
I also went out of my way to characterize rumors that another front runner w/strong support in GA. doesn't want him there as bizarre, unfounded rumor type stuff, and that this historic opportunity for GA will be worked out.
Don't believe the spin. There is NO scheduling conflict, he has a fluid, open schedule, and ALL his folks have been very clear that they are runnning up against "something" odd. The something just "might be" related to the fact that at least one of the honorees that evening, AND Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond, who is our First Vice Chair, have come out and publicly endorsed Senator Clinton. Or that there are a couple of very strong Edwards supporters still very connected to the party, or on the Exec. Committee, one of whom, former Gov. Roy Barnes, ran the show for a while himself, if you recall.
Jane Kidd, who I keep saying, has a unique ability to remain above the fray, has NOT been public about who she's supporting. I know SHE would never give into pressure to disinclude him w/out a fight. That's what's going on behind the scenes, imho.
My deepest concern is what it will look like if she and the other FAIR members of the Exec. Committee don't prevail in their insistance that the Obama campaign be made welcome. We have got to overcome the perception that he's being deliberately left out of the
golden opportunity to address the folks at the JJ.
Do you have any idea how racist, elitist, and petty we will look if the rumored deliberate and very focused effort by Clinton and Edwards supporters succeeed in excluding Obama from this opportunity?
Don't tell me who I'm blaming, I was very clear that I'm a strong supporter of Jane's. I put my all on the line to help her get elected Chairwoman of the Party, and remain loyal to her.
I've fact checked this, it's absurd to think that he would skip a state where so many of us are supporting him.
I've heard from numerous people in HIS campaign, that he is being blocked. I qualified it by saying that it may be bizarre unfounded rumor type stuff alright, in terms of WHO is doing the dirty, but it's based on the fact that we're less than a week out and still haven't gotten that email announcing his attendance. That part ain't no rumor, it's a fact. And it stinks.
Maddy
Progress! The DPG has added a link at their JJ site, where you can still invite Senator Obama to the JJ Dinner, his site has a place where you can invite him to events... and I got back an email w/in minutes, providing me w/the following phone number, 312-819-2419. You should fill in the invitation on his site first, so that when you call you get a chance to leave a message about a prior invitation submitted on his website.
Huge thanks to Chairperson Kidd, who put the link to invite him on the site, as well as a link to buy the 25$ tickets for the rally for the candidates which begins at 8 pm.
Chairperson Kidd will be on the Kudzu Vine blog cast tonight, at 7, and will hopefully make that announcement that we're all waiting for... I'm very proud and happy that we are not giving in to whatever alleged weirdness has been going on behind the scenes, and are making it easy for Senator Obama's supporters to request his attendance.
Please, in the interest of building the Democratic Party of GA., take part in this effort to include ALL the Democratic candidates for President. We deserve to hear from every candidate who seeks our votes.
I hope you have had a chance to read Caroline Kennedy's endorsement of Senator Obama in today's NYTimes. Rumor has it that Senator Kennedy will be announcing his endorsement of Senator Obama soon.
Maddy
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