Not yet
There's been a good bit of focus on Jim Martin's entry into the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, and, in turn, we've seen a lot of undecided and likely to support so-and-so Democrats move into his camp. It's not without good reason as Martin is a good guy, on the whole I agree with his platform and I think he's been a strong Democrat at a time when such a thing isn't terribly popular in Georgia.
That said, don't count me on the Martin bandwagon.
From what I can gather, Martin is the preferred choice by those within party circles because - as even folks at Daily Kos note - he's viewed as the most 'viable' candidate against Chambliss. However, I don't think this is the case at all.
First off, despite sporting some high unfavorables for an elected Republican in this state, Chambliss doesn't seem set to lose this seat. An unpopular Republican in Georgia is still a Republican in Georgia, and until Democrats can build up their bench by diversifying their locally elected officails, it's an uphill road to knock him off.
Secondly, Martin only tallied 42 percent in his bid for Lt. Governor in 2006. While I can concede that his numbers might have fared better had he faced off against Ralph Reed, I think the point is that his ceiling probably hovers around 42 to 45 percent.
Again, this isn't to diminish the record of Martin, but to just point out what I think is obvious and to note that's why I'm still sticking with Josh Lanier. And it's for largely the reasons that Flack noted a few months back (despite some of my disagreements at the time).
That said, don't count me on the Martin bandwagon.
From what I can gather, Martin is the preferred choice by those within party circles because - as even folks at Daily Kos note - he's viewed as the most 'viable' candidate against Chambliss. However, I don't think this is the case at all.
First off, despite sporting some high unfavorables for an elected Republican in this state, Chambliss doesn't seem set to lose this seat. An unpopular Republican in Georgia is still a Republican in Georgia, and until Democrats can build up their bench by diversifying their locally elected officails, it's an uphill road to knock him off.
Secondly, Martin only tallied 42 percent in his bid for Lt. Governor in 2006. While I can concede that his numbers might have fared better had he faced off against Ralph Reed, I think the point is that his ceiling probably hovers around 42 to 45 percent.
Again, this isn't to diminish the record of Martin, but to just point out what I think is obvious and to note that's why I'm still sticking with Josh Lanier. And it's for largely the reasons that Flack noted a few months back (despite some of my disagreements at the time).
posted by Jmac at 11:17 AM
9 Comments:
My guess is that Lanier will also be on the jim martin bandwagon before long.
Jim's got WAY more name recognition than anyone other than VJ, and its mostly positive(losing to cagle aside).
The real test will be what kind of money he pulls in this weekend. If he posts a strong quarter, then I would expect to see josh lanier step out.
-wmo
Anon @ 11:44 -- You obviously don't know Josh Lanier or haven't read much about him. Fear is not in his vocabulary, and the big money chase is exactly what he'll campaign against. After all the orchestrations to get an insider into this race, Martin needs to have a whopper of a FEC report tolive up to the hype, and that would be Lanier's best scenario.
The money game does not and will not make a difference with Josh.
The REAL TEST is knowing the issues at the national level. This race isn't a beauty contest. It's about who best can serve in the US Senate.
I am hopeful that both Josh and Martin appear at the debate on Tuesday so people can here where they stand on the issues.
FOJL
Anyone know anything about Rand Knight, who came and spoke to the ACC Dems the other night and is running against Chambliss?
Rand, despite some good-natured poking on my behalf, has actually ran quite an impressive campaign. He's been campaigning all over the place and picked up some union endorsements too.
I've been very impressed quite frankly.
"The money game does not and will not make a difference with Josh."
And that's the point. Let's do some simple numbers. Lanier has committed to taking no more than $100 from any individual contributor, right? And as of now, Chambliss has $4,459,794 on hand. (Let's call it an even $4.5 million, because I was told there would be no math.) Now, that's what he's got right now. No one knows how much more he's going to show when the next reports come out, much less how much he's going to have bankrolled by November.
So, $4.5 mil. Under Lanier's self-imposed restrictions, that means Lanier will need to raise $100 dollars from 4,500 individual donors just to catch up with what Saxby has right now.
Look, I'm all in favor of principled stands, and I actually agree with Lanier's principles here, but I'm also all in favor of beating Saxby, and you can't do that $100 at a time. Talk about bringing a paperclip to a gun fight.
Lanier's a nice guy, but he's the wrong guy. How does he compete with Vernon Jones in Atlanta? Riddle me that.
Oh, and Knight? He lost me with that B.S. southern accent he put on every time he went outside of 285. Condescending fuck.
... that means Lanier will need to raise $100 dollars from 4,500 individual donors just to catch up with what Saxby has right now.
You're crazy if you think Martin can come close to those numbers. I'm not saying Lanier can, but don't fool yourself into thinking Martin can. He might raise $500,000, and that's it.
The facts are that NONE of the Democrats are going to come close to Shameless' numbers.
Your focus is strictly on money. If we use that as the only factor that matters, we would not be in the majority in congress today.
Let's talk about the issues and see where the candidates take us.
As far as beating VJ in Atlanta, why would any candidate lay out their strategy for all to see?
Despite all of these well intentioned comments, Saxby will be reelected in November. Regardless of what the more liberal democrats say, he has done a good job representing Georgia in the U.S. Senate and remains quite popular across the state.
Jim Martin - far too left to pick up moderates and independents. Supporting tax payer benefits to illegal aliens just isn't going to fly.
Vernon Jones - formidable in the primary, toast in the general.
Josh Lanier - no money, no name ID, no visible cammpaign.
Randolph Knight Jr - same problems as Lanier
Dale Cardwell - undercut any credibility he might have had by climbing up on that pole over New Years. Also, no money or visible campaign.
Maggie Who?
Nobody has been paying any attention to this race because of the Presidential primary. Let's see how things start to heat up after qualifying before anyone gets 'written off'.
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