Friday, October 17, 2008

Updating the map

North Dakota.

Looks like we've got a potential map-changing election on our hands here, which is pretty interesting. It's refreshing to see both Barack Obama and John McCain airing TV ads in Georgia, which hasn't been the case in our state for roughly 16 years.

Contrary to's assertions, Ohio and Florida aren't essential to an Obama victory. Currently, Obama has 264 base electoral votes, including New Mexico where he holds close to an eight-point lead.

This base does not include the following states ...

Virginia, 13 EVs (Obama up 6.5)
Colorado, 9 EVs (Obama up 5.7)
Florida, 27 EVs (Obama up 2.4)
Ohio, 20 EVs (Obama up 2.3)
Missouri, 11 EVs (Obama up 2.3)
Nevada, 5 EVs (Obama up 2.3)
North Carolina, 15 EVs (Obama up 1.7)
North Dakota, 3 EVs (Obama up 1.7)
West Virginia, 5 EVs (McCain up 0.7)

Judging by these numbers, McCain could win both Florida and Ohio, and Obama could still have a path to 270 outside of those two states. Surely the former needs those states, but he's also got to pretty much run the table in the rest of them too.

I'm not ruling anything out. In fact, I expect McCain to close the deal on a good number of these states. But I also expect Obama to take Nevada and at least one other state, which is all he has to do. It's not the time to take the foot off the pedal by any means, but it also shows what a well-managed, well-funded national campaign can do.


Post a Comment

<< Home