Friday, November 14, 2008

I'm really not wrong, cont.

Because I want to belabor the point, Blake argues that we should have seen 22,000 ballots cast in this year's District 10 race. That would equal 88 percent participation.

Again, that level of participation simply has not been achieved in recent history in comparable races. In 2006, a four-way race for District Nine achieved 81 percent participation. In 2004, Elton Dodson achieved 75 percent participation in a non-contested race in the general election for District 10, while in the contested primary election earlier that summer, with three candidates, the level of participation was 72 percent.

In the past three comparable elections - in addition to this year's races - we haven't seen a participation level on a scale that parallels what Blake is suggesting. What we have seen are statistical trends that carry over from election to election for down ballot races that are consistent for contested and non-contested races for the Athens-Clarke County Commission.

As a result, I stand by my original claim - that you have to assume that 25 to 30 percent of the ballots that weren't cast are consistent with statistical trends showing those decisions were made without regard for the candidate(s) in the race.

1 Comments:

Blogger paveplanet said...

Guys, it is a moot point.

Dodson didn't run. And Hamby won after the first vote for him was registered.

It is kinda like arguing how UGA would fair in the upcoming BCS championship game. It might have been a meaningful debate in July, but pointless now.

9:26 PM  

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