Preview time
Because such a fabulous job was done by I'm A Realist, I figured I'd lend a hand and post all of the links for his 2006 SEC Football Previews. So, here they are in the reverse order of when he posted 'em:
Georgia
Arkansas
Mississippi State
Vanderbilt
Kentucky
Ole Miss
Alabama
LSU
South Carolina
Florida
Auburn
Tennessee
Also, picked up a copy of Phil Steele's College Football Preview, which typically is the college football preview magazine. My only problem with this particular publication - and it stretches back several years - is that ole Phil has an irrational love for Tennessee (well, that and the massive crush he has on himself ... it takes me three to four sentences along the lines of 'I was the only one to correctly pick Oregon State would finish with a plus-four turnover ratio three years ago' per preview to actually get to this season's picks).
He had it something bad for Casey Clausen back in the day, apparently oblivious to the fact that Casey Clausen was, well, pretty terrible as a starting quarterback. And this year is no exception as he's picked the Volunteers to finish first in the SEC East. Perhaps this isn't too outlandish as I think Florida is a bit overrated and Georgia has got a lot of rebuilding to do, but to say Tennessee is the hands-down favorite in the division is ridiculous.
As an aside, I do agree with him about Arkansas. Who's with me to go to Little Rock and watch the 'Hogs upset Southern Cal in the season opener?
Georgia
Arkansas
Mississippi State
Vanderbilt
Kentucky
Ole Miss
Alabama
LSU
South Carolina
Florida
Auburn
Tennessee
Also, picked up a copy of Phil Steele's College Football Preview, which typically is the college football preview magazine. My only problem with this particular publication - and it stretches back several years - is that ole Phil has an irrational love for Tennessee (well, that and the massive crush he has on himself ... it takes me three to four sentences along the lines of 'I was the only one to correctly pick Oregon State would finish with a plus-four turnover ratio three years ago' per preview to actually get to this season's picks).
He had it something bad for Casey Clausen back in the day, apparently oblivious to the fact that Casey Clausen was, well, pretty terrible as a starting quarterback. And this year is no exception as he's picked the Volunteers to finish first in the SEC East. Perhaps this isn't too outlandish as I think Florida is a bit overrated and Georgia has got a lot of rebuilding to do, but to say Tennessee is the hands-down favorite in the division is ridiculous.
As an aside, I do agree with him about Arkansas. Who's with me to go to Little Rock and watch the 'Hogs upset Southern Cal in the season opener?
posted by Jmac at 7:14 AM
6 Comments:
I don't disagree with you about it being silly to rank Tennessee a hands-down favorite. There is no clear favorite unless someone believes the hype about Florida, which I don't. But you overstate here:
He had it something bad for Casey Clausen back in the day, apparently oblivious to the fact that Casey Clausen was, well, pretty terrible as a starting quarterback.
He was mediocre, but not terrible. He is second in many career passing statistics in school history, trailing only behind Peyton Manning. There was a dip in winning percentage for the program over the past few years, but that had a lot more to do with unimaginative playcalling than with who was taking snaps under center.
Perhaps I was a bit harsh, but I also think that Clausen is, quite possibly, the most overrated quarterback in SEC history. I wouldn't rank him among the top five quarterbacks in Tennessee history (Peyton Manning, Heath Shuler, Andy Kelly, Tee Martin, Jeff Francis, etc.).
We had a similar discussion over at Dawg Sports concerning Eric Zeier. Zeier put up absurd stats at Georgia, but had trouble winning. So I don't necessarily think passing yardage statistics are essential when evaluating a quarterback's worth to the team.
But, then again, you're not saying Clausen was uber-QB ... just that he wasn't completely 'terrible' and I suppose I can go along with that.
Yeah, the issue is more that Clausen was overrated than that he was objectively terrible. He was often spoken of as one of the elite qb's in the country during his tenure at UT, though, and that was just ridiculous. But this is a particularly strong perception among Georgia fans like JMac and I, for obvious reasons (i.e., Clausen never beat us...that whole "one hand behind my back" comment...etc.)
As for Tennessee's chances in the SEC this year, they certainly were a bit of an "underachieving" or "unlucky" team last year. They had the 18th best scoring defense in the entire country, but they also had like the 105th offense. But usually when you play good defense, you win. D is much more than important than O, if you have to choose. In SEC play, the Vols (just barely) scored more points than they gave up, yet they finished 3-5 in conference. They were at least a 4-4 caliber team last year.
So, if we think that the Vols are going to improve somewhat this year, then we could see them going 5-3 or 6-2 in the SEC. And if the ball bounces right, then they could find their way into the SEC East crown. But picking them as the favorite is odd. I really like Phil Steele's magazine, though, and haven't gotten my copy yet this summer. I'll be very interested to read his reasoning about the Vols.
As for Arkansas, riiiiiight.... I certainly don't think the score will be 70-17 like it was last year, and with USC breaking so many new players and this game being played on the first day of the season there is definitely a chance for an upset. But I'm not sure I'd put a lot of eggs into that basket. What was Steele's reasoning on this? HOw likely does he think the upset is?
Like UT, Arkansas was another "unlucky" team in the SEC last year. They both scored and gaved up 21.1 points a game in SEC play last year (which would project a record around 4-4), but only went 2-6 in conference play. The culprit? Too many close losses: the Razorbacks lost 4 SEC games last year by 4 points or less. So, like the Vols, I definitely think Arkansas will be better this year, both in terms of talent and actual record. But I don't think they'll finish higher than 3rd in the SEC West. And upsetting USC is probably dreaming.
i saw you mention phil steele and all i yelled out -- 'that dumb bastard had casey claussen winning the heisman a couple of years ago!'
i see you beat me to it.
it always gets sent to the office and i pick it up.
and, well, casey claussen sucked donkey balls. nice hair douchebag
Let's not sell the Razorbacks short here. They return 10 offensive starters - replacing one starter on the offensive line with a 6-foot-6, 335-pound manchild Zac Tubbs - and also added one of the two top quarterback prospects in the country.
So why do I think Arkansas will knock off the Trojans?
- You better believe that Houston Nutt is going to put the biggest recruit he's ever landed into the game at some point. And Mitch Mustain enters with a distinct advantage over possibly any other freshman quarterback in the country - he knows the system inside and out. His high school coach is the new offensive coordinator, and Mustain has run the system for four years.
- Southern Cal, on the other hand, is replacing two Heisman Trophy winners as well as seven other starters on offense. And Lendale White, who added 1,319 yards rushing and 24 touchdowns last year. Pete Carroll doesn't have Norm Chow any more, which means this brand new offensive unit is going to have to deliver on its own. It's a tall task to think they're going to do it in their first game against Arkansas.
- By the end of last season, Arkansas had finally gotten things together. The Razorbacks were a combined five points away from upsetting both Georgia and LSU. Experience will go a long way this year for them.
- Nine starters are back on a defensive unit that steadily improved throughout the year, and the two new starters are two players who saw significant action last year (one of them being former UGA signee Michael Grant). Arkansas's rushing defense held three of its final five foes to under 100 yards rushing, and the other two barely cracked the century mark. Three of the four starters last year in the secondary were sophomores, so again experience will make all the difference.
- Darren Freakin' McFadden. Kid averaged more than six yards a carry and is easily the best back in the SEC. The Trojans have to replace a lot up front on defense, and McFadden could have a huge day.
You're making me blush with all of this "fabulous job" stuff.
If you want to give LSU and Auburn the nod as the best teams in the West (and I would have a hard time arguing against that), Arkansas is just a notch under them. As I said in the preview, if they upset(?) Alabama at home, they get a bye week before playing at Auburn. If they upset Auburn, they would be in the driver's seat for the SEC West title.
McFadden and Felix Jones are teh hottne55, as each averaged over 6 ypc. Add Mustain to a very underrated receiving corps and a fairly stout defense, and you have all the makings.
And, while Phil Steele is the most informative magazine out there, he is most certainly a self-promoter. As with all good sleazy gamblers, he conveniently remembers everytime he got something remotely right and forgets the bold predictions he got horribly, horribly wrong. Not that I don't, but still.
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