The crystal ball ...
I've expressed my skepticism with Democrats sweeping into power in recent weeks, so I figured it was about time - as we are just a little more than a week away from Election Day - that I took a look at some of those races that are most hotly contested.
Democrats hold 18 seats up for grabs, while Republicans have 15. According to the most recent polls, Democrats have a lock on holding 12 of those compared to seven for Republicans. Democrats hold slim leads in eight races with four being considered a toss-up and the GOP clinging to a lead in the Virginia Senate race between George Allen and Jim Webb.
What will happen? It's anyone's guess. A lot can shake out in the final week of the campaign, but here's my take ...
Democrats will probably take nine of those contested races, including gains in Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. As much as I'd like to see both Harold Ford Jr. and Webb win in Tennessee and Virginia respectively, it's a tough mountain to climb, and I think Republicans hold their ground there (which is a shame ... both Ford and Webb would make great senators).
That leaves Missouri, Washington and New Jersey as toss-ups. I'd bet for Democrats to take Washington and, more than likely, New Jersey as well. Republicans should hold on to Missouri.
That would give Democrats four pick-ups, bringing their total in the U.S. Senate to 49 (including independents like Joe Lieberman and Jim Jeffords).
As far as gains in the U.S. House, I'm less versed. As of now, Democrats stand to pick up 12 seats, though Sabato's Crystal Ball has 16 as toss-ups. That would mean Democrats would need to snag just three additional seats to grab a majority, which is more possible than them taking back the Senate.
Democrats hold 18 seats up for grabs, while Republicans have 15. According to the most recent polls, Democrats have a lock on holding 12 of those compared to seven for Republicans. Democrats hold slim leads in eight races with four being considered a toss-up and the GOP clinging to a lead in the Virginia Senate race between George Allen and Jim Webb.
What will happen? It's anyone's guess. A lot can shake out in the final week of the campaign, but here's my take ...
Democrats will probably take nine of those contested races, including gains in Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. As much as I'd like to see both Harold Ford Jr. and Webb win in Tennessee and Virginia respectively, it's a tough mountain to climb, and I think Republicans hold their ground there (which is a shame ... both Ford and Webb would make great senators).
That leaves Missouri, Washington and New Jersey as toss-ups. I'd bet for Democrats to take Washington and, more than likely, New Jersey as well. Republicans should hold on to Missouri.
That would give Democrats four pick-ups, bringing their total in the U.S. Senate to 49 (including independents like Joe Lieberman and Jim Jeffords).
As far as gains in the U.S. House, I'm less versed. As of now, Democrats stand to pick up 12 seats, though Sabato's Crystal Ball has 16 as toss-ups. That would mean Democrats would need to snag just three additional seats to grab a majority, which is more possible than them taking back the Senate.
posted by Jmac at 6:55 AM
5 Comments:
Don't count out Ford or McCaskill in TN and MO, respectively.
Tennessee is going to come down to a turnout game, and the Ford machine in the urban areas will rival anything the GOP can do.
McCaskill has a great message and could see this through.
I think Democrats pick up one of those two.
In VA, Allen will probably squeak by, but his Presidential chances are ruined, regardless. The big question there is - how well does Webb do in the Southern part of the state? If he can hold his own there, like Kaine and Warner did in the past, then he could win.
Washington and New Jersey look scarier than they are, and Democrats will pick them both up with little to no sweat.
Senate comes out 50-50 (IF you count Lieberman in the Dem column).
House comes out with a 6-10 seat democratic majority.
Man, I would like to see Ford win in TN.
Darren
I think that New Jersey will probably be won by the Republican Kean, but that Missouri, thanks to Michael J. Fox's lies, may go to Clare McCaskill (D).
Santorum loses in PA to a pro-life conservative Democrat, I'm not too upset about that. Chafee, a Democrat who calls himself a Republican, loses in Rhode Island, again no big loss.
I think it's just the general cycle; last Senate election a lot of the Republican leaning states had Democratic seats taken by Republicans; this year many Democratic leaning states have Republican seats that are at risk. It generally will even out at about 53 seats for the Republicans. Fortunately a lot of the Democrats who will be there are moderates like Casey, or are in right-leaning states like Landrieu and Johnson.
Republicans keep their healthy majority in the House.
Oh and of course, voters in South Dakota approve the state's abortion ban.
I think the opposite Chuck, as I noted. I think Democrats have a better chance at taking the House, but won't be able to pull out grabbing the Senate. I think it's too tough to take Tennessee for Ford, and I'm not sold entirely on MsCaskill winning in Missouri.
But the House, the sheer numbers suggest the chance of taking control of that legislative body. Democrats need to win three out of the 16 toss-up races, and that seems likely to me.
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