Reality on electibility
Josh has a comment in this post that I think is misguided. He predicts that Barack Obama will ulimately be defeated, handily, by John McCain because the country will realize how liberal the former is.
While I think Obama is more pragmatic that purely ideological, such a comment reveals submersion in Deep South politics and fails to understand the political mood in the nation right now. Just as the United States trended conservative throughout the latter part of the 1970s and the 1980s, we're seeing a trend toward more progressive politics currently.
Proof of this comes from examining the Electoral College map from 2004 and comparing it with existing polling between Obama and McCain in targeted states. In it, President Bush won Ohio, Missouri, Iowa, Florida and Colorado. Early polling shows that Obama is tied with McCain in Ohio and Florida, while holding comfortable leads in Missouri, Iowa and Colorado. Logic would suggest that Obama would hold the Democratic base states (California, New York, etc.) and McCain would lock down the South, meaning if you flip just those three states Obama currently leads in he'd swipe 27 electoral votes away.
The caveat is that Pennsylvania is also tied, presumably because McCain plays better in a blue-collar state than most conservatives would right now. Ultimately, I think whoever the Democratic nominee is would fair better there in the long-term.
Another caveat is that the most recent Virginia poll is from mid-January and showed McCain with roughly a 10-point lead. I think that comes down, particularly with Obama's recent momentum and the fact that there's a good chance Jim Webb would be the vice presidential nominee. Regardless, having Tim Kaine and Webb on his side, plus an Obama endorser in Mark Warner, on the ballot, makes this much more favorable for Obama than that early poll would indicate.
While I think Obama is more pragmatic that purely ideological, such a comment reveals submersion in Deep South politics and fails to understand the political mood in the nation right now. Just as the United States trended conservative throughout the latter part of the 1970s and the 1980s, we're seeing a trend toward more progressive politics currently.
Proof of this comes from examining the Electoral College map from 2004 and comparing it with existing polling between Obama and McCain in targeted states. In it, President Bush won Ohio, Missouri, Iowa, Florida and Colorado. Early polling shows that Obama is tied with McCain in Ohio and Florida, while holding comfortable leads in Missouri, Iowa and Colorado. Logic would suggest that Obama would hold the Democratic base states (California, New York, etc.) and McCain would lock down the South, meaning if you flip just those three states Obama currently leads in he'd swipe 27 electoral votes away.
The caveat is that Pennsylvania is also tied, presumably because McCain plays better in a blue-collar state than most conservatives would right now. Ultimately, I think whoever the Democratic nominee is would fair better there in the long-term.
Another caveat is that the most recent Virginia poll is from mid-January and showed McCain with roughly a 10-point lead. I think that comes down, particularly with Obama's recent momentum and the fact that there's a good chance Jim Webb would be the vice presidential nominee. Regardless, having Tim Kaine and Webb on his side, plus an Obama endorser in Mark Warner, on the ballot, makes this much more favorable for Obama than that early poll would indicate.
posted by Jmac at 1:07 PM
3 Comments:
My point, though, is that existing polling is worthless as far as November goes. Obama has gotten kid gloves-treatment so far, with the heaviest policy challenges being in the form of "We both believe (fill in the blank), I just have a different way of going about it."
The country at large has no idea who Obama is, and how far to the left most of his policies lie. Once he is forced to enunciate them in contrast to a (sorta) Republican's, the difference between Obama and the electorate will be stark. He hasn't had to answer any tough questions, but that's all he will get between the convention and November.
Don't be fooled - this is still a conservative country at large, albeit not a Republican one. (There is a difference).
I can't for the life of me see how Obama, who at least opposes this war, could lose vs the openly militaristic Mccain. The democrats, despite what they may think, took congress because of Iraq. People still want out of Iraq, and Mccain ain't gonna do it. If a democrat who is opposed to the war actually lost this one...wow.
-Matt
Obama (or Clinton) will need to pick a VP with strong red state appeal. I think Barack Obama is the more electable of the two Democrats but John McCain will be very formidable. My first choice would have been a Edwards-Webb ticket but Obama-Webb just might work.
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