That's a different conclusion
While I definitely don't expect Georgia to go blue in 2008, I think this Insider Advantage poll and subsequent commentary is off-base. It proceeds to suggest that the South is relevant in the Electoral College, which I think is not terribly true since the GOP has consolidated it while the remainder of the country is watching as red states turn purple (Colorado, Montana, Virginia, etc.). Republicans pick up their approximate one-third of the vote and then have to go uphill from there, particularly in a hostile environment for the GOP.
Aside from that, I think we're drawing the wrong conclusion over John McCain's 48-40 lead over Barack Obama.
In 2004, President Bush tallied 57 percent of the vote in Georgia to John Kerry's 41 percent, while he performed equally as well against Al Gore in 2000. What you have here is McCain, an established and well-known Republican candidate, polling at less than 50 percent with 12 percent of the electorate decided. As a result, it's possible that he's reached his ceiling (particularly since he's only up 47-40 over Hillary Clinton, who is clearly an unpopular figure in Georgia Republican circles), while Obama has greater potential for growth.
If the nominee was Obama, with his lower name recognition, enthusiasm from new voters and the ramped up turnout for African-American voters, I have a hard time believing he doesn't get above 45 percent in Georgia and make it a little more competitive.
Again, I don't think he wins, but I think he polls much better than other Democrats in recent elections.
Aside from that, I think we're drawing the wrong conclusion over John McCain's 48-40 lead over Barack Obama.
In 2004, President Bush tallied 57 percent of the vote in Georgia to John Kerry's 41 percent, while he performed equally as well against Al Gore in 2000. What you have here is McCain, an established and well-known Republican candidate, polling at less than 50 percent with 12 percent of the electorate decided. As a result, it's possible that he's reached his ceiling (particularly since he's only up 47-40 over Hillary Clinton, who is clearly an unpopular figure in Georgia Republican circles), while Obama has greater potential for growth.
If the nominee was Obama, with his lower name recognition, enthusiasm from new voters and the ramped up turnout for African-American voters, I have a hard time believing he doesn't get above 45 percent in Georgia and make it a little more competitive.
Again, I don't think he wins, but I think he polls much better than other Democrats in recent elections.
posted by Jmac at 10:11 PM
7 Comments:
The mere fact that the McCain people may even have to tie up resources here means something.
I think Obama is the one with the ceiling, especially in Georgia.
You have to consider the so-called "Bradley Effect," named for former LA mayor Tom Bradley, a black politico who polled at one high level and garnered votes at a significantly lower level. It was determined that voters were telling pollsters that, yes, they'd vote for a black candidate, then doing otherwise when the curtain closed.
Some of that will probably happen with Obama, here and elsewhere.
Reggie
Folks have been touting the Bradley Effect for Obama throughout the campaign, but it hasn't materialized yet. The only state he was favored to win but lost was New Hampshire, but that had more to do with Hillary Clinton's aggressive push there in the final few days.
Plus, he still outperformed compared to where he was in the polls just a week before.
True, but you're talking about the Democratic party nominating process, at least for the moment.
If there's a Bradley Effect, it stands to reason it would be pronounced in the electorate at large.
Any Democrat who believes Obama isn't going to be handily smoked by McCain is living in Fantasyland. Once the country at large realizes just how liberal Obama is, the train will derail. Now, though, he isn't being challenged on those fronts because it's been Dem vs Dem.
Wish you were right, Josh.
But any attempt to confront Obama on issues will be portrayed by the mainstream media as an example of racism.
"I disagree with my worthy opponent re the future deployment of troops in Iraq" becomes "McCain Raises Issue of Race!"
It's gonna be tough.
That said, if the media picked the President, we'd be in Year 4 of the Kerry Administration.
Or Year 8 of the Gore Administration.
Reggie
Once the country at large realizes just how liberal Obama is, the train will derail.
Wow. This, of course, would suggest we live in an overwhelmingly conservative nation that has great sympathy for the GOP right now ... not one that is trending Democratic in places not referred to as 'The former Confederate State of America.'
Post a Comment
<< Home