Monday, December 22, 2008

Andre watch

Today, he wants Democrats to run hard to the right in order to win Georgia. While I won't dispute that a moderate to conservative Democrat often fares better statewide than a more liberal one, it's worth noting that Andre's snapshot assessment doesn't match up with the changing demographics of the state.

Democrats have strong bases in the urban areas of the state, often enjoying large margins of victory on those areas. That's been tempered by overwhelming margins of victory for Republicans in the rural areas of Georgia. Given that urban areas are going to continue to experience solid growth and, judging by existing demographic trends and polling data on younger voters, they will continue to strongly favor Democrats ... this is a good thing for the future.

Plus, Andre completely ignores the fast-growing Hispanic population in Georgia, which overwhelmingly backed Barack Obama earlier this year and has seen many of its bridges to the Republican Party burned in the past four years due to the policies they've pushed.

If the African-American vote continues to be 25 to 30 percent (and it should continue to become larger percentage of the electorate), and the Hispanic population pushes five to eight percent of the electorate, then the percentage of white voters necessary for a statewide win has decreased dramatically. Knowing that those two demographics have overwhelmingly backed Democrats in recent elections, the 20 to 25 percent of white support for Democrats that Andre ridicules today will eventually suffice.


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