Getting on the schedule
Paul has officially beaten me to the punch of examining strength of schedules for 2006, but that doesn't mean I can't take a gander as well. Particularly since he and I have some disagreements about what makes for a strong schedule.
Using Phil Steele's massive College Football Preview 2006 as an informal guide, let's see if we can't find out who's got it rough, and who's got it easy.
Steele's Top 10 toughest schedules are ...
1. Southern California
2. Stanford
3. Washington
4. UCLA
5. Oregon
6. Washington State
7. Notre Dame
8. Iowa State
9. Tennessee
10. California
OK ... what's the first problem you see here? Could it be that 70 percent of the Pac-10 is listed? That if you look at his Top 20, all of the Pac-10 teams get the 'toughest schedule' nod (Arizona at No. 11, Oregon State at No. 12, Arizona State at No. 20).
First off, using Steele's own logic this is deeply flawed. He lists the Pac-10 as the fifth strongest conference in Division I-A for 2006, with the SEC atop the pack and the Big 12 at No. 2. The full-time analyst, sometime Tennessee homer, claims that an elaborate formula he specially created churns out this strength of schedule rating.
What can only make sense is that somehow he gives added weight to non-conference games over conference games, as, by his own admission, the fifth-best conference shouldn't generate the best schedule strength. I have my own issues with the validity of judging non-conference opponents differently than conference ones, particularly combined with saying that the Pac-10's conference slate plus its non-conference one is on par with, say, the SEC's or Big Ten's.
As I've argued before, it's a non-starter to suggest that playing weaker non-conference opponents is detrimental to your national title hopes. In my mind, playing an SEC slate of Auburn, Florida, Georgia, LSU and Tennessee (for example) is on par, if not better than, playing a Pac-10 slate of Southern California, Oregon, Arizona State and then a non-conference foe like Notre Dame.
This is even more puzzling using Steele's logic as he has five Pac-10 teams in his preseason Top 40 (No. 4 Southern California, No. 16 California, No. 25 Oregon, No. 27 Arizona State, No. 34 Arizona), but features seven SEC teams in the same listing, including a conference-best six in the Top 25 (No. 2 Auburn, No. 12 Tennessee, No. 13 Arkansas, No. 14 Georgia, No. 20 Florida, No. 21 LSU, No. 36 Alabama).
If we examine, say the schedules of Oregon State (No. 12) and Ole Miss (No. 31), I'd argue the slate the Rebels have to work through is considerably more difficult than that of the Beavers.
Oregon State's non-conference opponents are Eastern Washington, Boise State, Idaho and Hawaii. The Beavers get Southern California, California and Arizona at home ... not that the latter three are actually winnable for them.
Ole Miss's non-conference opponents are Memphis, Missouri, Wake Forest and Northwestern State. Save the latter, Ole Miss's non-conference foes appear to be stronger or, if nothing else, are from the major conferences. As for their SEC opponents in 2006, the Rebels face Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn and LSU - four of those being bowl teams in 2005 with one (Arkansas) likely to be one this season.
What hinders Ole Miss, in the eyes of Steele, is the inclusion of Division I-AA Northwestern State on the schedule, which is terribly unfortunate and very misleading. Ole Miss faces more quality teams on a week-in and week-out basis than Oregon State does, yet the Beavers rank almost 20 slots higher in strength of schedule?
So let's take a look at some of those Top 10 teams ...
Right off the bat, I'll concede that Southern California should be atop the heap. The Trojans open at Arkansas, who stands to be the most improved team in college football this season, then host Nebraska before traveling to take on an Arizona team which should be much improved. And there's always the annual showdown with Notre Dame, though this one is at least at home, though it comes on the heels of showdowns with Oregon and California.
Stanford at No. 2, however, is ridiculous. The Cardinal have a tough road game at Notre Dame on Oct. 7, but face San Jose State and Navy for their other two nonconference games. Likewise, No. 3 Washington has a road contest with Oklahoma on Sept. 9, but home games with San Jose State and Fresno State. The same is for UCLA, who goes to Notre Dame on Oct. 21, but hosts Utah and Rice to open the year.
Iowa State is a head-scratcher for me as well. The Big 12 is a fairly weak conference, and the Cyclones face Toledo, UNLV, Iowa and Northern Iowa for their non-conference foes. Road trips to both Texas and Oklahoma are daunting, but those, coupled with a home contest against Nebraska, are the only credible games on the schedule.
I have some similar questions for Paul, in awarding his medals and cupcakes. For instance, he applauds the schedule of Air Force as a difficult one, but there are few daunting contests outside of a Sept. 9 visit to Tennessee and the hosting of Notre Dame on Nov. 11. He cites the Falcons' contests against Army and Navy - two difficult games to be sure - as proof of their schedule strength, but neither team is a legitimate contender on the national scene.
Likewise, I think both Paul and Steele don't give Vanderbilt enough credit - though the former does actually award the Commodores a medal, albeit a small one ... so props for that - for its schedule, which features road trips to Michigan and Alabama to open the year before returning home to square off against Arkansas. Vanderbilt then goes to Georgia on Oct. 14 and hosts Florida and Tennessee to close the season out. That's six viable bowl teams, not counting South Carolina which could go either way in year two of the Spurrier Era.
If I had to pick who we were going to say had the toughest schedules, in no particular order, I'd opt for ...
- Southern California - The Trojans face quality teams in all three of their non-conference games, though they get Oregon and California at home.
- Notre Dame - Last year's was weaker than usual for the Irish, but an opening stretch of Georgia Tech, Penn State, Michigan and Michigan State is rough. It settles down in the middle of the year, but Notre Dame will have to take on Southern California in Los Angeles to end the regular season.
- Tennessee - The Volunteers open with one of what I consider the three quality Pac-10 programs in California, host Marshall and then get Georgia, South Carolina and Arkansas on the road. Home contests against Florida and LSU won't be a walk in the park either.
- Vanderbilt - Yes indeed. The Commodores run through the rugged SEC East slate, as well as games against Alabama and Arkansas and open the season in Ann Arbor versus Michigan.
- Miami - Paul won't necessarily agree, but the Hurricanes open with Florida State, travel to Louisville three weeks later and then close the season out with games against Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Virginia and Boston College.
- Georgia Tech - I'm no fan, but it's going to be a bit rough this year for the Yellow Jackets who open with Notre Dame, travel to Virginia Tech and Clemson, host Miami and finish the year in Athens against Georgia.
- Ohio State - The Buckeyes kick off the year with a bang, heading to Austin, Texas, for the rematch of all rematches against the Longhorns on Sept. 9. Then, they host Penn State, travel to Iowa and Michigan State before hosting Michigan to close out the year.
Honorable mentions ...
Had Mississippi State picked up Tennessee or Florida, I might have put them in the hunt. The Bulldogs face South Carolina, Auburn, LSU, West Virginia, Georgia, Alabama and Arkansas in 2006. ... Penn State goes to Notre Dame and Ohio State, but hosts Michigan and Michigan State. ... Texas, by including Ohio State, makes my honorable mentions. The Longhorns also get Oklahoma and road trips to Nebraska and Texas Tech in back-to-back weeks. ... In a random one, Duke goes to Virginia Tech, Alabama, Boston College and Georgia Tech. The Blue Devils also host Florida State and Miami in back-to-back weeks.
Using Phil Steele's massive College Football Preview 2006 as an informal guide, let's see if we can't find out who's got it rough, and who's got it easy.
Steele's Top 10 toughest schedules are ...
1. Southern California
2. Stanford
3. Washington
4. UCLA
5. Oregon
6. Washington State
7. Notre Dame
8. Iowa State
9. Tennessee
10. California
OK ... what's the first problem you see here? Could it be that 70 percent of the Pac-10 is listed? That if you look at his Top 20, all of the Pac-10 teams get the 'toughest schedule' nod (Arizona at No. 11, Oregon State at No. 12, Arizona State at No. 20).
First off, using Steele's own logic this is deeply flawed. He lists the Pac-10 as the fifth strongest conference in Division I-A for 2006, with the SEC atop the pack and the Big 12 at No. 2. The full-time analyst, sometime Tennessee homer, claims that an elaborate formula he specially created churns out this strength of schedule rating.
What can only make sense is that somehow he gives added weight to non-conference games over conference games, as, by his own admission, the fifth-best conference shouldn't generate the best schedule strength. I have my own issues with the validity of judging non-conference opponents differently than conference ones, particularly combined with saying that the Pac-10's conference slate plus its non-conference one is on par with, say, the SEC's or Big Ten's.
As I've argued before, it's a non-starter to suggest that playing weaker non-conference opponents is detrimental to your national title hopes. In my mind, playing an SEC slate of Auburn, Florida, Georgia, LSU and Tennessee (for example) is on par, if not better than, playing a Pac-10 slate of Southern California, Oregon, Arizona State and then a non-conference foe like Notre Dame.
This is even more puzzling using Steele's logic as he has five Pac-10 teams in his preseason Top 40 (No. 4 Southern California, No. 16 California, No. 25 Oregon, No. 27 Arizona State, No. 34 Arizona), but features seven SEC teams in the same listing, including a conference-best six in the Top 25 (No. 2 Auburn, No. 12 Tennessee, No. 13 Arkansas, No. 14 Georgia, No. 20 Florida, No. 21 LSU, No. 36 Alabama).
If we examine, say the schedules of Oregon State (No. 12) and Ole Miss (No. 31), I'd argue the slate the Rebels have to work through is considerably more difficult than that of the Beavers.
Oregon State's non-conference opponents are Eastern Washington, Boise State, Idaho and Hawaii. The Beavers get Southern California, California and Arizona at home ... not that the latter three are actually winnable for them.
Ole Miss's non-conference opponents are Memphis, Missouri, Wake Forest and Northwestern State. Save the latter, Ole Miss's non-conference foes appear to be stronger or, if nothing else, are from the major conferences. As for their SEC opponents in 2006, the Rebels face Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn and LSU - four of those being bowl teams in 2005 with one (Arkansas) likely to be one this season.
What hinders Ole Miss, in the eyes of Steele, is the inclusion of Division I-AA Northwestern State on the schedule, which is terribly unfortunate and very misleading. Ole Miss faces more quality teams on a week-in and week-out basis than Oregon State does, yet the Beavers rank almost 20 slots higher in strength of schedule?
So let's take a look at some of those Top 10 teams ...
Right off the bat, I'll concede that Southern California should be atop the heap. The Trojans open at Arkansas, who stands to be the most improved team in college football this season, then host Nebraska before traveling to take on an Arizona team which should be much improved. And there's always the annual showdown with Notre Dame, though this one is at least at home, though it comes on the heels of showdowns with Oregon and California.
Stanford at No. 2, however, is ridiculous. The Cardinal have a tough road game at Notre Dame on Oct. 7, but face San Jose State and Navy for their other two nonconference games. Likewise, No. 3 Washington has a road contest with Oklahoma on Sept. 9, but home games with San Jose State and Fresno State. The same is for UCLA, who goes to Notre Dame on Oct. 21, but hosts Utah and Rice to open the year.
Iowa State is a head-scratcher for me as well. The Big 12 is a fairly weak conference, and the Cyclones face Toledo, UNLV, Iowa and Northern Iowa for their non-conference foes. Road trips to both Texas and Oklahoma are daunting, but those, coupled with a home contest against Nebraska, are the only credible games on the schedule.
I have some similar questions for Paul, in awarding his medals and cupcakes. For instance, he applauds the schedule of Air Force as a difficult one, but there are few daunting contests outside of a Sept. 9 visit to Tennessee and the hosting of Notre Dame on Nov. 11. He cites the Falcons' contests against Army and Navy - two difficult games to be sure - as proof of their schedule strength, but neither team is a legitimate contender on the national scene.
Likewise, I think both Paul and Steele don't give Vanderbilt enough credit - though the former does actually award the Commodores a medal, albeit a small one ... so props for that - for its schedule, which features road trips to Michigan and Alabama to open the year before returning home to square off against Arkansas. Vanderbilt then goes to Georgia on Oct. 14 and hosts Florida and Tennessee to close the season out. That's six viable bowl teams, not counting South Carolina which could go either way in year two of the Spurrier Era.
If I had to pick who we were going to say had the toughest schedules, in no particular order, I'd opt for ...
- Southern California - The Trojans face quality teams in all three of their non-conference games, though they get Oregon and California at home.
- Notre Dame - Last year's was weaker than usual for the Irish, but an opening stretch of Georgia Tech, Penn State, Michigan and Michigan State is rough. It settles down in the middle of the year, but Notre Dame will have to take on Southern California in Los Angeles to end the regular season.
- Tennessee - The Volunteers open with one of what I consider the three quality Pac-10 programs in California, host Marshall and then get Georgia, South Carolina and Arkansas on the road. Home contests against Florida and LSU won't be a walk in the park either.
- Vanderbilt - Yes indeed. The Commodores run through the rugged SEC East slate, as well as games against Alabama and Arkansas and open the season in Ann Arbor versus Michigan.
- Miami - Paul won't necessarily agree, but the Hurricanes open with Florida State, travel to Louisville three weeks later and then close the season out with games against Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Virginia and Boston College.
- Georgia Tech - I'm no fan, but it's going to be a bit rough this year for the Yellow Jackets who open with Notre Dame, travel to Virginia Tech and Clemson, host Miami and finish the year in Athens against Georgia.
- Ohio State - The Buckeyes kick off the year with a bang, heading to Austin, Texas, for the rematch of all rematches against the Longhorns on Sept. 9. Then, they host Penn State, travel to Iowa and Michigan State before hosting Michigan to close out the year.
Honorable mentions ...
Had Mississippi State picked up Tennessee or Florida, I might have put them in the hunt. The Bulldogs face South Carolina, Auburn, LSU, West Virginia, Georgia, Alabama and Arkansas in 2006. ... Penn State goes to Notre Dame and Ohio State, but hosts Michigan and Michigan State. ... Texas, by including Ohio State, makes my honorable mentions. The Longhorns also get Oklahoma and road trips to Nebraska and Texas Tech in back-to-back weeks. ... In a random one, Duke goes to Virginia Tech, Alabama, Boston College and Georgia Tech. The Blue Devils also host Florida State and Miami in back-to-back weeks.
posted by Jmac at 6:11 PM
9 Comments:
My post was not (entirely) about SOS, but about non-conference games.
You are stuck with your conference schedule for all its strengths and weaknesses. (The debate over the best conference is an endless one where fans usually yell that their team's conference is the best. I'll let you and others hash out whether Pullman-Berkeley-Tuscon trips are harder than East Lansing-Iowa City-Happy Valley trips.)
In that way, Air Force gets a medal not because of overall SOS, but because the two games it does not HAVE to play (by executive order and by conference) in 2006 are at Tenn. and home vs. ND.
And I have no real problems with your read on Miami. If not for the trip to Louisville, the 'Canes would have been given girly cupcakes as well, however, for the home games vs. Florida A&M, Florida International, and Houston.
Jmac,
Florida at least deserves honorable mention mostly for their conference slate. Ignoring that for a moment, they still play Southern Miss, UCF, and at Florida State. All three of those teams were bowl teams last year. They also play at Tennessee and at Auburn. They have a four game stretch against teams that won at least 9 games: LSU, Alabama, at Auburn, Georgia. In all they play 8 bowl teams from 2005 + Tennessee. That doesn't get honorable mention?
I overlooked Florida, and that was an oversight. The Gators have a tough road ahead, so let's give them an after-the-fact honorable mention. Thanks for the heads-up.
True Paul, but I suppose in looking entirely at SOS we have to figure in the conference games, good and bad. This kind of gets back to a side discussion about whether or not we should fault teams in say, the Big Ten or SEC, for scheduling softer non-conference foes.
Understandably, the Pac-10 has worked to shed its image as a weaker conference, and one of their primary ways to do so is to reach out to other conferences and/or teams for non-conference games. When you're conference slate consists of Arizona State, Washington State and Stanford, inserting an Oklahoma or Texas or Notre Dame as a non-conference foe is actually wise if you want to bolster yourself to the voters.
However, if you're in the SEC with conference foes like Florida, LSU, Tennessee and Auburn, or the Big Ten with opponents like Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Penn State, there isn't much incentive into trying and working in another highly ranked program.
Navy is good. A bowl team, at any rate.
That is all.
Navy's a bit misleading to me. The Midshipmen get a lot of credit and are a solid team, but I'd hold off in saying how good they really are.
Navy opened with losses to Maryland and Stanford last year before beating Duke, Air Force and Kent State by a combined score of 89-76. They're 0-3 against Rutgers over the past five years, split a series with Division I-AA Delaware in 2003-2004 and are 0-5 against ranked teams since 2001.
I'm in awe of the sacrifice and service of the men and women at the U.S. Naval Academy, but I don't think their football program is exactly worthy of raising some eyebrows yet.
But, dude, they run the option. Awesome!
You do have me there. I'm a sucker for out-of-date, yet really cool run-heavy offenses.
Like the Wing-T!
The thing is, though, the optin isn't really "out of date." You can score with the option. Navy puts up points. So does Rice. And Air Force does pretty well, at least every other year or so.
I was reading an article on the option a couple of years ago, and they had some NFL coach saying he had no doubt the option could move the ball at the pro level...but your qb (and possibly all of your runninb backs as well) would get killed. So, you know, you have to make a trade-off, I guess.
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