Election Day morning thoughts
- Well, first of all, be sure to get out and vote.
- I don't think Sonny Perdue will need a runoff to dispatch of Mark Taylor. He'll close strong in this solidly red state to capture 50-55 percent.
- Some of Heidi Davison's supporters think she can win without a runoff if they get their turnout, while Charlie Maddox is more confident he can win without a runoff. I, for one, think we're headed to a runoff. It looks like Davison will probably finish the day with 40 to 45 percent and Maddox somewhere in the mid- to high-30s, setting us all up for another month of this.
- I'm not sure about District Nine, however. If Kelly Girtz gets his supporters out, he could avoid a runoff and win it outright.
- Looking at the most recent polling, I think Democrats take back the House but fall short in the Senate. It looks like they have a very real possibility of snagging 25 seats (only 15 needed for control) there, but the Senate's an uphill climb.
- For example, Bob Corker is closing strong in Tennessee and it looks like Harold Ford Jr. is going to fall short, which is a shame. He'd be an excellent senator for that state.
- However, it looks more and more like Jim Webb might pull off a victory over George Allen in Virginia. In fact, it looks like Democrats should be able to pick up four seats in the Senate, though Bob Menendez is having a tough time with Tom Kean in New Jersey and Michael Steele is giving Ben Cardin all he can handle in Maryland. Both are traditionally Democratic states and this is shaping up to a favorable year for Democrats, so one of those two should hold on.
- In the House, Democrats hold leads, some pretty slim it must be noted, in 30 races against an incumbent Republican. In nine additional races against incumbents, they are either in a virtual tie or surging late against a narrow margin. Logic states they pick up the 12 seats they hold leads of more than five points in, and then at least snag 10 or so of the remaining 27 up for play ... which would give them control of Congress.
- I don't think Sonny Perdue will need a runoff to dispatch of Mark Taylor. He'll close strong in this solidly red state to capture 50-55 percent.
- Some of Heidi Davison's supporters think she can win without a runoff if they get their turnout, while Charlie Maddox is more confident he can win without a runoff. I, for one, think we're headed to a runoff. It looks like Davison will probably finish the day with 40 to 45 percent and Maddox somewhere in the mid- to high-30s, setting us all up for another month of this.
- I'm not sure about District Nine, however. If Kelly Girtz gets his supporters out, he could avoid a runoff and win it outright.
- Looking at the most recent polling, I think Democrats take back the House but fall short in the Senate. It looks like they have a very real possibility of snagging 25 seats (only 15 needed for control) there, but the Senate's an uphill climb.
- For example, Bob Corker is closing strong in Tennessee and it looks like Harold Ford Jr. is going to fall short, which is a shame. He'd be an excellent senator for that state.
- However, it looks more and more like Jim Webb might pull off a victory over George Allen in Virginia. In fact, it looks like Democrats should be able to pick up four seats in the Senate, though Bob Menendez is having a tough time with Tom Kean in New Jersey and Michael Steele is giving Ben Cardin all he can handle in Maryland. Both are traditionally Democratic states and this is shaping up to a favorable year for Democrats, so one of those two should hold on.
- In the House, Democrats hold leads, some pretty slim it must be noted, in 30 races against an incumbent Republican. In nine additional races against incumbents, they are either in a virtual tie or surging late against a narrow margin. Logic states they pick up the 12 seats they hold leads of more than five points in, and then at least snag 10 or so of the remaining 27 up for play ... which would give them control of Congress.
posted by Jmac at 7:11 AM
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